Thanksgiving and Black Friday mark the start of the holiday shopping season. It provides a unique lens through which investors can gauge consumer sentiment, economic outlook, and the performance of retail giants. As a result, let’s talk Black Friday stocks.
If sales expectations are met, it can be a good indicator for retail giants and companies in other sectors. The 5-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday is critical. However, many other economic and political factors can affect the stock market.
Are these holidays an opportunity for investors to feast in the stock market? Let’s find out more about Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
Black Friday Stocks List 2025
| Symbol | Name |
|---|---|
| Amazon | AMZN |
| PayPal | PYPL |
| Walmart | WMT |
| Shopify | SHOP |
| Costco | COST |
| ROST | Ross Stores |
| MELI | MercadoLibre |
What Are Black Friday Stocks? (Introduction)
Thanksgiving is a time to relax with family and friends. For this reason, on Thanksgiving Thursday, the stock market is closed and is only open until 1 pm during Black Friday. However, after the long weekend on Cyber Monday, everything goes back to normal. What does that mean for Black Friday stocks?
Fun fact: It’s called Black Friday because, in the old days, profits were recorded with black ink while losses were in red ink.
How Do Thanksgiving and Black Friday Affect the Stock Market?
Spoiler alert: Black Friday doesn’t wield substantial influence over the stock market. While certain sectors experience short-term fluctuations, the broader market remains largely unscathed. What does that mean for the market’s day stocks?
Historically, the stock market’s performance from the week before the holiday to the week after has been mixed. Since 2001, positive returns following the long weekend have happened only 50% of the time. S&P returns exceeding 1% happened thrice (2001, 2007, and 2012).
Retail Sector
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), the average American shopper will spend over $300 between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. This is a very busy period for shoppers and retail companies. How does this affect Black Friday stocks?
In the last 15 years, the retail sector has outperformed the S&P from the week before to the week after the holidays. Since 2007, the S&P’s average return was 3%, while the S&P 500 Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT) returned an average of 5.06%.
The consumer discretionary index also performed well during this period, with a solid average return of 4.54%. What does this mean for the broader markets?
Black Friday Effects on the Stock Market
As we can see, Black Friday has a short-term effect on many stocks but also has some consequences on the broader market. What do these Black Friday stocks do?
- Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is closely tied to black Friday and the holiday shopping season. Positive consumer sentiment can have broader economic implications, potentially leading to optimism in the stock market. Stocks can perform strongly and lead to a Santa Claus rally in December.
- Market Volatility: Increased trading activity and investor attention around Black Friday and the holiday season can contribute to short-term market volatility. This volatility may present trading opportunities for some investors but can also introduce risk for those unprepared for market fluctuations.
- Long-term Implications: It can offer insights into consumer spending, which can have longer-term implications for the retail and consumer sectors.
How to Invest in Black Friday Stocks
Some stocks will perform well during the 5-day holiday, but will keep the momentum going in the long term. Here are a few examples of Black Friday stocks that have historically performed well during and after Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday.
Retailers
Retail companies offer Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals both in-store and online. Consumers will jump at the opportunity to purchase their loved ones’ gifts for the holidays, even after those sales, as Christmas approaches very quickly. Let’s look at a couple of Black Friday stocks to watch.
Walmart (NYSE: WMT) is one of the biggest retailers and offers amazing deals for shoppers. The company’s stock has been positive every December between 2010 and 2022, except in 2018 and 2022. Some gains were modest, but others were over 5% (2011 and 2021).
Home Depot’s (NYSE: HD) stock has had an impressive run since 2020. Consumers buy home improvement and construction products to decorate, renovate, and prepare for their guests. It’s also a good time to stock up on general maintenance products. Home Depot’s stock has been in the green every December since 2010, except in 2022. The stock saw gains between 2 to 6%.
E-commerce
E-commerce stocks have also enjoyed a nice ride in December, making them more than just Black Friday stocks. They act as intermediaries between the buyers and the sellers. More transactions lead to more revenues during that period.
Since 2010, both Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) have been in the red only in 2018, 2021, and 2022. They were part of the bigger tech selloff from the last few years.
However, since 2010, Amazon has seen significant gains in December, ranging from 1 to 10% increases with an average gain of just below 6%. On the other hand, eBay’s were much more modest but still ranged between 1 and 4% (almost 10% in 2011).
Consumer Electronics
Consumer electronics have always been a favorite among consumers for Black Friday sales and beyond. Everyone wants a new gadget, and the list gets bigger every year. Trends led to the rise of GoPro (NASDAQ: GPRO), which has been in the green every December since its IPO in 2014, except in 2022. The stock is down 92% since its IPO, but December sales led to an average increase of around 10%.
Another great example is Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), which usually releases its new iPhone in September. The company’s stock has a very successful holiday period, and its sales in December usually rise around 7-8%. Apple only recorded an unsuccessful month of December in 2018, 2021, and 2022, identical to Amazon and other big tech giants.
Payment Processors
Visa (NYSE: V), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), and American Express (NYSE: AXP) handle over 95% of all transactions in the US every year. During the holiday period, the number of transactions they handle increases even more. All three companies have grown tremendously over the last decades; December is no exception.
Since 2010, 2022 was the only year they were all in the red. Their gains weren’t consistent throughout the years, but December has been very kind to Visa, Mastercard, and American Express shareholders.
Logisics & Shipping
For those buying all their purchases online, who has to deliver them to their doorstep? Logistics and shipping companies. They are extremely busy during the holidays, and their services are well-appreciated. Some of the most popular are UPS (NYSE: UPS) and FedEx (NYSE: FDX).
Once again, both companies share very similar results in December since 2010. Both performed very poorly in 2018 and 2022. FedEx’s stock decreased by over 22% in December 2018. However, the remainder of December has been very lucrative, with around 4 to 6% returns. In December 2020, FedEx even gained over 21%.
You can see the repetitive patterns. These stocks performed poorly in 2018, 2021, and 2022 due to global political and economic fears.
Final Thoughts: Black Friday Stocks
The 5-day weekend starting on Thanksgiving and ending on Black Monday can lead investors to serious gains in December. In the examples above, most stocks that benefited during that period failed to do so in 2018, 2021 (COVID), and 2022 (inflation rise).
When holiday sales expectations are met, and economic and political conditions in the world aren’t in shambles, you can expect certain stock sectors to perform very well.
Frequently Asked Questions
Black Friday is a great day for shopping, so retail stocks can do quite well during that time.
The Black Friday crash happened in 1869 when the price of gold fell rapidly.
In a bull market, Fridays tend to be the most volatile, so depending on your trading style, that can be a great day to trade.
Mondays and Fridays are seen as the best days to buy stocks.
