Tesla Stock Analysis: Where Is $TSLA Headed?

Have you looked at Tesla stock analysis lately? You know the name, you know the brand, and you know the stock that has captivated investors for most of this year. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is without a doubt, the most intriguing company in the world right now. Whether you are a Tesla bear or a Tesla bull, it’s impossible to deny the impact that it has had on the investing world.

What Is Tesla?

Tesla Stock Analysis

At this point, there probably aren’t many people who are still asking this question. This is especially true if you follow the stock market at all. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is arguably the most popular publicly traded company in the world.

The company itself was founded back in 2003 and is currently headquartered in Austin, Texas. Tesla is an American technology and clean energy company that is most well known for its line of fully electric vehicles. 

Tesla also operates in providing renewable energy sources through solar panels and other stored sources of energy. Although most people believe he is the founder, current CEO Elon Musk did not become involved until 2008. Musk was already the largest shareholder since 2004 and took over the corner office several years later. Since then, Musk has become a global celebrity and the wealthiest person in the world. 

The world was changed forever the second that Tesla’s first zero emissions vehicle hit the roads. It’s a necessary evolution; for the sake of our environment, our fossil fuel reserves, and the overall shift towards digitizing and autonomizing our transportation methods.

But I’m not here to sell you on Tesla’s cars. This article is meant to provide a full Tesla stock analysis of where it’s now; and where it could be in the future. Cars are just one part of Tesla’s long-term plans. And are quite literally just the vessel that is being used to carry out Elon Musk’s Master Plan.

Tesla Stock Analysis and Where Is $TSLA Headed?

While Tesla’s stock is one of the most popular, it’s also one of the most polarizing. The stock has officially reached cult status and is both a mega cap constituent of the S&P 500 and a meme stock.

Tesla stock analysis transcends the divide between retail and institutional investors. Generally, investors either love the company or think it is highly overvalued. 

Tesla’s stock chart has certainly been a microcosm of its success as a company. For years, Tesla was bleeding money as a non-profitable startup company. Likewise its stock traded sideways for the better part of two decades, until it really began to surge in 2020.

Why the sudden move higher? Tesla was beginning to see the results of its company growing to a global scale. In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla finally reached profitability. 

This growth also coincided with a sudden rise in stock investing during the COVID-19 pandemic. With stimulus checks and stay-at-home orders, there was more money being injected into the stock market than ever before.

Of course, one of the stocks that reaped the benefit of this was Tesla. It helped that the stock was already a globally recognized brand amongst younger generations of investors. 

Tesla’s stock hit its peak in the second half of 2021 following a much publicized 5 for 1 stock split in August. The stock hit an all-time high price in November. Unfortunately for investors, 2022 hasn’t been as kind. Tesla has been mired in the ongoing growth stock correction that has hammered stocks down to pre-COVID multiples. 

As of May 2022, the stock has lost 47% so far in 2022. With headwinds like higher interest rates and global supply chain issues, Tesla will likely continue to be challenged for the rest of this year.

Tesla Stock Analysis
Check out the chart via TrendSpider.

In Musk We Trust?

When it comes to Tesla stock analysis do we trust Musk? Musk has become such a prominent public figure that many investors have started to blindly follow him. Along with noted Tesla bull Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, retail traders have been hanging on their every word.

But for some investors, Musk’s tongue-in–cheek tone and obsession with social media are troubling signs from a company leader. 

Another issue investors have with Musk is that he is a busy man. Not only does Musk own Tesla, he also owns SpaceX, the Boring Company, and is currently attempting to acquire Twitter (NYSE: TWTR). With so much work on his plate, many wonder if Musk can lead Tesla with the same success.

Whatever your stance on Musk is, it’s difficult to deny the impact he has had on this world. At the top of Musk’s list of accomplishments is building companies that make the world a better place. He has nearly single–handedly created a global shift in the automotive industry as nearly every legacy automaker has a model or line of electrified vehicles coming to the market. 

Tesla is Taking Over the Roads (Slowly)

The Model Y and the Model X provide the same level of luxury, performance, and zero-emissions for the crossover and SUV classes.

Along with this is includes the upcoming Cyber Truck. It’s set to debut at some point in 2021 and offers the Tesla experience to an entirely new market of drivers.

Tesla is also getting into the long-haul delivery game with the Tesla Semi that’s set to debut in the next couple of years.

Did you know it’ll offer companies a savings of $200,000 in fuel costs for every 1 million miles the Tesla Semi drives. Are we sure Tesla isn’t a car company?

We need to learn how to stock market works so we can put Tesla stock analysis to use.

Tesla Stock Analysis: Who Are Tesla’s Competitors?

Tesla’s competition now is a lot different than its competition when it was just starting out. Back in the early 2000’s, there wasn’t a lot of demand for completely electric vehicles.

But not only was there not a high demand but the industry did not have the attention of legacy automakers. Today, the entire industry is competing with Tesla. Here are some of the largest rivals for Tesla.

Nio (NYSE: NIO) 

The Chinese EV maker is often known as the Tesla of China and is one of the most popular EV makers in the country. Nio offers a fleet of sleek, luxury EVs that are capturing a larger share of the lucrative Chinese automarket.

What sets Nio apart is its famous battery swap technology which allows Nio drivers to skip waiting for the charger and attend at battery swap stations throughout China. 

Nio recently expanded into Europe and has already sold over 500 vehicles in the Norwegian market. The company has plans to further expand throughout Europe, with eyes on a future US release as well. 

Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID)

Lucid is a relative newcomer to the industry but its CEO has a long history with Musk and Tesla. CEO Peter Rawlinson was a former executive with Tesla and helped to design the Model S. He left the company and famously did not get along with Musk and the two CEOs have continued this beef onto social media. 

Lucid was founded back in 2007 but came to the markets via a SPAC IPO in 2021. The company has the unique trait of being 61% owned by the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia. This has led Lucid to skipping traditional markets like China.

Instead, Lucid will be establishing its second production facility in the Middle East. Lucid’s uber luxury Air Sedan vehicles have not been selling as well as it had hoped. In the meantime, it has slashed production estimates for 2022 and delayed the release of its SUV model, the Gravity.

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN)

The electric truck maker was one of the most anticipated IPOs in 2021. Why? Two of Rivian’s largest investors and stakeholders at the time were Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Ford (NYSE:F).

Rivian managed to come out of nowhere to get the first electric pick up truck on the market. The EV maker managed to beat Tesla’s Cyber Truck, which is now delayed until 2023 at the earliest. 

As mentioned, Rivian makes electric pickup trucks and electric last mile delivery trucks. It has a standing order to produce 100,000 for Amazon’s new all-electric fleet. Unfortunately for early investors, the stock has fallen by nearly 75% since its IPO.

General Motors (NYSE: GM)

Of the legacy automakers, General Motors has one of the most aggressive plans to electrify its fleet by the end of this decade. GM is dedicating $35 billion between now and 2025. This plan will lead to the company having an entirely electric fleet by 2035.

The company has several electric vehicles already in production including electric editions of its popular Chevrolet Silverado truck, as well as popular models like the Corvette and Hummer.

Tesla Stock Analysis of Autos, Technology and Energy

Sure, Tesla can be categorized as a car company. In the same way that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is a phone company and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) is a web browsing company.

So what is Tesla then, if not a car company? If you look at the very heart of what Tesla is trying to do, you’ll find that perhaps the most appropriate answer is that Tesla is an energy company.

What does Musk want more than anything? A fully sustainable ecosystem that thrives off of data analytics, and machine learning. 

Twenty years ago, plugging your car into your home to charge it and then driving it to work would have seemed like something out of a science fiction movie.

But for hundreds of thousands of people, this is now a daily routine. Musk wants to turn each of our homes into a source of energy.

He wants hour homes to have Tesla Power Walls that store energy and can be tapped when you need to use it. And roofs made of solar panels that can absorb solar energy.

Then store it in your home. All of which can be controlled by your Tesla mobile app; which can allocate and distribute energy around your home as is required. 

Tesla stock analysis can use MACD to help you confirm a trend. This’ll be important if Musk ends up taking over the world with his ideas.

$TSLA Chart October TrendSpider
Hourly Trend of $TLSA vs the 50 Simple Moving Average (daily time frame moving average) – last time we tested this MA we bounced, will we bounce here? Be sure to check the MACD of any stock before you enter and ask yourself if the momentum is right to enter.

Tesla Stock Analysis: So Much More Than a Car Company

If you think that’s a bit of a leap from electric vehicles to electric homes, you should see what else Tesla is planning. Autonomous cars and artificial intelligence are at the forefront of Musk’s ultimate plans.

If we can create a network of cars that speak to each other on the roads, Musk believes that, when done correctly, this could be safer than cars driven by humans.

Musk once said, “the most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release.”

But just how are these cars going to talk to each other? The same way any machines talk to each other: data. 

Data analytics and cloud computing are just two of the ways in which Tesla is hoping that all of the data being captured. Its vehicles can create a digital map of the roadways in a specific city or area.

If each Tesla car can contribute its data to help construct this map, theoretically Tesla can then blast this data out to the entire fleet of Tesla vehicles.

See where this is going? Tesla also wants to leverage all of this data they’re capturing to start its own insurance company. They then would be able to provide Tesla drivers with a lower cost of insurance; based on the driver’s tendencies.

How will they be able to measure this? Data. Each Tesla will be able to provide data from its driver. Which could include things like how fast or how reckless the driver can be, or how cautious they drive at nighttime. Cars are just the vessel, and Tesla, is so much more than a car company.

TSLA Earnings Report Investing
Source: Investing.com

Tesla Stock Analysis: Valuations

So back to the Tesla stock analysis. The valuations for this company are trading at stratospheric levels. Everyone knows this.

Tesla isn’t even profitable yet. Yet the stock is trading at a trailing 12 months price/earnings ratio of 936, and a forward price/earnings ratio of 116. 

In comparison, the average price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is historically between 13 and 15. The market cap of the company is sky-high.

That makes it easily the most valuable automaker in the world. If you consider Tesla a tech company, it’s worth more than Verizon, Netflix, Oracle, and Cisco.

If you consider Tesla an energy company, it dwarves the industry giants and is worth more than Exxon Mobile and Chevron combined. 

And yet, shares of Tesla are some of the most popular stocks and options traded on the investing app Robinhood. And in August, when the company underwent a 5 for 1 stock split, the stock popped over 50% in the month leading up to the split date. 

Currently, Tesla is on track to deliver its goal of 500,000 cars this year. However, the fourth quarter will need to be a good one as they still need over 180,000 to reach its goal.

Even Wall Street doesn’t know what to do with Tesla; as 32 different analysts range from $19 to $800 per share over the next 12 months. The truth lies somewhere in the middle and fully depends on how you define Tesla as an investor. 

The Bull Case for Tesla

The bull case for Tesla is a fairly simple one. Electric vehicles account for nearly 5% of all American cars on the road as of the most recent quarter. A staggering 70% of those cars are made by Tesla in the US.

Currently if you were to order a Tesla, it could take anywhere from a few weeks to several months depending on where you live. Tesla is also highly sought after in key markets like China and Europe.

Tesla recently opened two new GigaFactories in Berlin, Germany and Austin, Texas, which it anticipates will grow its global production capacity by 50% at a minimum. 

On top of all of this, Tesla is actively involved in other areas of technology. Tesla routinely works with artificial intelligence and machine learning. It is also designing a human assistance bot as the company takes its first steps into robotics.

It’s easy to get excited about Tesla  as a company when you take a step back and realize it is more than just electric vehicles. 

The Bear Case for Tesla

The bear case for Tesla revolves around an increasingly saturated automotive market.  Not only are there dozens of startups like Lucid and Rivian, there are also legitimate legacy automakers like General Motors, Ford (NYSE: F), and soon, Toyota.

Even if Tesla is the dominant brand in the industry, added competition will only naturally lower its sales and market share. This in itself is reason to be at least slightly bearish for the long-term.

This doesn’t mean Tesla’s stock will fall to zero, but most can expect the company to grow at a reduced pace. Other Tesla products have been difficult to get going including its highly anticipated FSD full self driving technology. Further delays in the Tesla Semi, Tesla Roadster, and Cyber Truck are also concerning. 

$TSLA Stock Analysis In Conclusion

Is Tesla a Good Investment? This is the million dollar question for investors: should you buy Tesla stock? If you are a value investor, Tesla is certainly trading at a low revenue multiple now after this year’s losses.

What’s so difficult to analyze about Tesla’s stock is that both the bull and bear cases make sense. If you believe in clean energy and electric vehicles over the long-term, then it’s hard not to like Tesla at these prices.

No matter what happens with the stock, one thing is for sure: Tesla will continue to be the most polarizing company on the US stock market. Whether it will be a good investment from here on out still remains to be seen. 

Before you go, if you’re looking to the future of space travel, consider a look at Blue Origin stock.

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